France closes its electoral cycle today with a vote with no alternative

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“In 80% of the circumscriptions is Macro or Macro”, say their supporters

France closes its electoral cycle today with a vote with no alternative

French President Emmanuel Macron, leaving his residence in Le Touquet in the north of the country yesterday (Philippe Huguen / AFP)

With the vote in the second round of legislative elections, today, the surprising electoral cycle begun on April 23 in the first phase of presidential elections ends in France. Open to all the results – from a victory of the extreme right, to the left, passing through the right and macronismo – in four equal blocks in votes (about 20%), this cycle will conclude today with the result of An overwhelming presidential majority of about 80% of the seats of the National Assembly.

After the elimination of the first legislative round last Sunday, “in 80% of the circumscriptions will be Macron or Macron”, notes with some surprise the president of the commission of investiture of the macronist movement The Republic in March (REM) , Jean-Paul Delevoye.

With a majority EM parliamentary group, associated with François Bayrou’s MoDem centrists, plus the so-called “constructive” sector of the conservative party The Republicans and a number of socialist deputies in Macron’s orbit, the prospects for an opposition are ridiculous.

Paradox
The majority of French would like to rectify the result today, but abstention will triumph

As many candidates, formally not attached to the Macron movement are presented under the label “by the presidential majority”, 80% of the duels that are fought today remind those who in Russia organize the so-called “party of power”: an issue without emotion. “We were not expecting everything to spin around Emmanuel Macron,” Delevoye says in a statement to Mediapart.

How to interpret this gibberish in which with a real electoral support (about the census) so small, so much power is reached?

The question is particularly incisive and disquieting, considering that to get to this sweep, Macron caused the double explosion of the traditional system of parties, snacking on the Socialist Party and fulfilling its promise to dynamite the Republicans by the procedure of naming To a prime minister of right and two ministers in command of the Economy also left the conservative party.

The sum is a huge concentration of power, which not only does not correspond with a firm or comparable social and electoral base, but also, if the matter were to puncture, would leave the French political landscape without an alternative within the establishment.

“This can not work; But if it works, Macron is a genius to be bowed over. ” This statement is attributed privately to former President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Sarkozy
“This can not work; But if it works, it is that Macron is a genius “

Given the enormity of the picture that is going to shape today, most of the French also show that same contradictory awe. 61% of them – more than six out of ten – have declared this week that they want to rectify the results of the first round of legislation so as not to give Macron an excessive majority, according to the Elabe-Bfmtv poll. At the same time, most of them, 53%, do not think to vote by breaking the historical record in abstention since in France there is the universal suffrage (1848) that was reached last Sunday. This record, which now seems to be increasing a little, added to the 9.5 million non-registered, or poorly registered, in the census, shows abstention of about two out of three French voters.

It is true that in the past there were also large parliamentary majorities thanks to the proportional system. Also it is that the surprising / novel vector has acted in other countries altering its political map, the Spain of We can and Citizens, or the Italy of the five stars. The difference is that the majority of the future deputies, will be by merit of Macron more than own, and that the French change has a seal 100 percent establishment. A very particular situation that will have to be followed with the utmost attention.

Full parliamentary powers

With more than 400 deputies expected in the National Assembly, more than a hundred others between similar and convergent, Emmanuel Macron will not have much to reach the majority of 555 deputies and senators (the Senate is renewed in September) required to introduce constitutional amendments . In the lower chamber (577 deputies) the majority is 289. With 185 plus 4 million signatures, a referendum petition can be initiated, an objective that the left shuffled after the presidential ones to summon a constituent assembly that would refound the Republic, and that Now it is out of sight. More modest, with 55 deputies can initiate a motion of censorship, which to thrive must involve an absolute majority. The minimum objective for the opposition is to get 15 deputies to be able to form parliamentary group, that is to say to have more time of speech and better financing. Macron can do whatever he wants in the camera.

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